What is the Kelly Criterion?
Formula: Stake % = (B × P - 1) / (B - 1)
Where: B = Odds - 1, P = Your estimated probability (e.g., 0.60 for 60%).
Example
Odds 2.50, you estimate 60% → Stake = (1.50 × 0.60 - 1) / 0.50 = 20%bankroll.
Odds 2.10, you estimate 60% → Negative stake → no value.
Why Advanced?
Requires precise estimates. If you overestimate, Kelly makes you lose faster.
Solution: Use Fractional Kelly (25-50%) — more stable, lower variance.
Full Kelly can cause big swings. Start with 50% Kelly.