Definition: What is xG?
xG — Expected Goals— is a number that tells you how many goals a team should have scored based on the quality of chances created, not just the number of shots.
Example:
- Team A shoots 10 times but from poor positions: xG = 0.8
- Team B shoots only 4 times but each from close range, central angle: xG = 2.1
Team B is more dangerous, even though they shot less.
How is xG Calculated?
For each shot, the model looks at:
1. Distancefrom goal (closer = higher xG)2. Angleof the shot (central better than wide)3. Body part(foot vs head)4. Type of action(open play, corner, penalty)5. Defensive pressureon the shooter
Penalty = 0.76 xG (statistically, ~76% go in)
Long-range, tight angle shot = 0.02-0.05 xG
How to Use xG for Betting?
#
Sign of a Team "Regressing to the Mean"
If a team lost 3 consecutive matchesbut had a higher xG than the opponent each time — they were unlucky. They'll improve.
If a team won 4 matchesbut with lower xG than their opponent each time — they were lucky. They'll drop soon.
xG Limitations
xG doesn't account for:
- Goalkeeper performance (an exceptional keeper can save 0.8 xG)
- Pure bad luck (posts, double posts)
- Match-specific tactics
Use xG as one of several tools— not the only factor.